You are spot on about the Keeling Curve not flinching in 2020, but the reason isn't that carbon tracking is a myth—it’s because the global economy never actually stopped moving. While local tailpipes went cold and families stayed home, the international maritime supply chain went into overdrive.
Your observation about the "slow-filling tank" perfectly aligns with the data, but the blame belongs to a massive regulatory blind spot: International Bunker Fuels and Global Shipping. This reality is thoroughly documented in federal court records—specifically in a major lawsuit currently before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (American Public Health Association v. EPA, Case No. 26-1037)—where evidence has been filed exposing exactly why local regulations fail. Consider the hard data from that legal record on why the line didn't bend:
The Global Shipping Surge: While local traffic stopped, global container freight traffic continued its uninterrupted 70-year growth trend. The world stopped driving to work, but it never stopped ordering goods from across the Pacific.
The Tracking Illusion: Local governments use flawed, localized baseline methodologies that completely omit international transit. Your local gas tax does nothing because the actual carbon loading is happening out on the water, entirely hidden from local balance sheets.
The Accounting Trick: The U.S. EPA’s official emissions inventories explicitly exclude international bunker fuels from domestic totals. It is a "phantom" compliance system.
The Weather Conveyor Belt: For those of us on the West Coast, satellite and meteorological mapping filed in court proves that the Pacific jet stream acts as a conveyor belt, compressing these massive, unregulated global maritime and air cargo emissions directly into our local air sheds.
You are exactly right that a high tax on local gas at a neighborhood pump won't make the Keeling curve flinch. It is an exercise in local absolution. The real driver isn't the local citizen; it is the global shipping economy operating in a complete regulatory vacuum, while local jurisdictions are contractually forced by federal grants to take the blame.
I filed a lot of documents in that case 26-1037. This is not the first time the courts have run from my evidence. I urge you to read my filing in that case.
But the point is clear, Keeling Curve was not effected by 5-7% reduction in emissions during covid. And would require essentially a full stop. And that would require authoritarian measures, which is why it seems it's pushed by recent WA legislative action. Even the small, ineffective measures here in WA require regressive fuel taxes which affects families, lower income, and trades workers.
The broader point though is climate is dynamic, complex with many feedback loops and buffers.
The outcome is its still before the court of appeals on judicial review. EPA fought my intervention and did not dispute my Amicus. The panel accepted neither.
Their systems stop at 12 miles. The Paris accord specifically exempts bunker fuel...and nobody factors in the jet stream pollution. Its not reasonable to have ships idling in our waterways waiting for docks to open...to have less emissions. Jet emissions is another non-tracked chart. The world economy pollutes for free.
Thanks so much for this, David! I'm fond of Dan Pena's take on the situation. Biggest fraud of the last age. And, I'm feeling excited about the pull in the other direction.
I'd never seen any of Dan Pena's videos. There's truth to the idea that if investors really thought sea level change would be that extreme or temps rise that high, people wouldn't be investing in certain places. But even back years ago, the IPCC didn't project the heights Pena claims, at least from what remember. Al Gore was certainly saying that as well as reputable fellows. Pretty dumb move. I do think it's funny all the private jets that fly into WEF meetings. ;)
You are spot on about the Keeling Curve not flinching in 2020, but the reason isn't that carbon tracking is a myth—it’s because the global economy never actually stopped moving. While local tailpipes went cold and families stayed home, the international maritime supply chain went into overdrive.
Your observation about the "slow-filling tank" perfectly aligns with the data, but the blame belongs to a massive regulatory blind spot: International Bunker Fuels and Global Shipping. This reality is thoroughly documented in federal court records—specifically in a major lawsuit currently before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (American Public Health Association v. EPA, Case No. 26-1037)—where evidence has been filed exposing exactly why local regulations fail. Consider the hard data from that legal record on why the line didn't bend:
The Global Shipping Surge: While local traffic stopped, global container freight traffic continued its uninterrupted 70-year growth trend. The world stopped driving to work, but it never stopped ordering goods from across the Pacific.
The Tracking Illusion: Local governments use flawed, localized baseline methodologies that completely omit international transit. Your local gas tax does nothing because the actual carbon loading is happening out on the water, entirely hidden from local balance sheets.
The Accounting Trick: The U.S. EPA’s official emissions inventories explicitly exclude international bunker fuels from domestic totals. It is a "phantom" compliance system.
The Weather Conveyor Belt: For those of us on the West Coast, satellite and meteorological mapping filed in court proves that the Pacific jet stream acts as a conveyor belt, compressing these massive, unregulated global maritime and air cargo emissions directly into our local air sheds.
You are exactly right that a high tax on local gas at a neighborhood pump won't make the Keeling curve flinch. It is an exercise in local absolution. The real driver isn't the local citizen; it is the global shipping economy operating in a complete regulatory vacuum, while local jurisdictions are contractually forced by federal grants to take the blame.
I filed a lot of documents in that case 26-1037. This is not the first time the courts have run from my evidence. I urge you to read my filing in that case.
Interesting. What was the outcome?
The data I used in this graph included shipping CO2. If I recall correctly, I patched the data to extend it using newer sources.
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/e3abc42b42
But the point is clear, Keeling Curve was not effected by 5-7% reduction in emissions during covid. And would require essentially a full stop. And that would require authoritarian measures, which is why it seems it's pushed by recent WA legislative action. Even the small, ineffective measures here in WA require regressive fuel taxes which affects families, lower income, and trades workers.
The broader point though is climate is dynamic, complex with many feedback loops and buffers.
The outcome is its still before the court of appeals on judicial review. EPA fought my intervention and did not dispute my Amicus. The panel accepted neither.
Their systems stop at 12 miles. The Paris accord specifically exempts bunker fuel...and nobody factors in the jet stream pollution. Its not reasonable to have ships idling in our waterways waiting for docks to open...to have less emissions. Jet emissions is another non-tracked chart. The world economy pollutes for free.
Thanks so much for this, David! I'm fond of Dan Pena's take on the situation. Biggest fraud of the last age. And, I'm feeling excited about the pull in the other direction.
I'd never seen any of Dan Pena's videos. There's truth to the idea that if investors really thought sea level change would be that extreme or temps rise that high, people wouldn't be investing in certain places. But even back years ago, the IPCC didn't project the heights Pena claims, at least from what remember. Al Gore was certainly saying that as well as reputable fellows. Pretty dumb move. I do think it's funny all the private jets that fly into WEF meetings. ;)